استعمال نماذج الانحدار الذاتي والمتوسطات المتحركة التكاملية الموسمية بالتنبؤ بدرجات الحرارة العظمى لمدينة بعقوبة

Abstract

This study uses the Box-Jenkins seasonal time series model toostudy andianalyze the monthly maximum temperature data for the city of Baqubah during 2021-2023. The model is characterized by high accuracy and high analytical flexibility, as the results showed by the application side of the research, in which seasonal time series models were used, and these models are SARIMA (1,1,0)(1,1,2) 12 and SARIMA(1,1,0). (2,1,1) 12 and SARIMA (1,1,0) (1,1,1) 12 and other models. Also based on the quality standards of model compatibility (Akaiki information criterion, Bayes information criterion, and Hanan Quinn criterion), it was found that the appropriate mode was Effective for representing time series data is SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,2) 12 and based on model estimates, temperatures areipredicted for theiperiod from January 2021 to December 2023, where the values align with the corresponding values in the original time series.