Temporal and Spatial Variation of Tuberculosis Incidence in Iraq Using Geographic Information Systems

Abstract

The results reveal a temporal variation in tuberculosis incidence in Iraq during the period 2014–2022, showing an overall increasing trend in reported cases across most governorates. Spatially, the highest incidence rates were concentrated in Basra, Baghdad, and Wasit governorates compared with other regions, indicating a clear geographic disparity in disease distribution. The findings also indicate that males were more affected than females throughout most of the study period. In addition, a positive relationship between age and tuberculosis incidence was observed, with infection rates increasing with advancing age in both sexes. At the detailed age-group level, the highest number of male cases was recorded in the 20–44 years age group, whereas females showed higher incidence in the 1–19 and 45–64 years age groups. Overall, the study demonstrates a pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the distribution of tuberculosis in Iraq, reflecting uneven patterns of disease occurrence across governorates and population groups.